Aviation Industry Forecasts Thailand's Passenger Recovery by 2025: Geopolitical Tensions, Fuel Costs, and Supply Chain Issues
Aviation industry experts predict a recovery in Thailand's passenger numbers by next year, but economic uncertainties and slow supply chain rebound pose challenges.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) have reported increased slot requests.
Factors affecting the industry's recovery include geopolitical tensions, rising expenses, and significantly increased fuel costs.
The aviation industry in Asia-Pacific is still facing supply chain challenges, including fleet resumption, outdated infrastructure, and a lack of spare parts and staff.
In 2023, Thailand was the fourth country in Southeast Asia to recover in terms of traffic, following the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam.
Vietnam was the only country to surpass 2019 traffic levels.
As of January 2024, revenue passenger kilometers in Asia-Pacific had recovered to 93% of the 2019 level, below the global average of a full recovery.
International passenger numbers are expected to reach 2019 levels in 2025, with some markets, such as China, opening borders more slowly than others.
Sarun Benjanirat, deputy director-general of CAAT, predicts a full recovery for Thailand's aviation industry with 165 million passengers by the end of this year at the earliest.
The base-case forecast, however, is within 2025.
A quick recovery depends on airlines increasing their fleet sizes and adding more seat capacity to lower airfares and boost travel demand.
The resumption of major markets, particularly China, which is currently at 60-70% of its 2019 level, is also crucial.